How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19

This video made possible with support of Brilliant - the first 200 subscribers to go to Brilliant.org/MinutePhysics get 20% off a Premium subscription to Brilliant.
Go to aatishb.com/covidtrends to explore the graph from the video yourself!
RESOURCES
Grant's 3Blue1Brown Video: Exponential Growth and Epidemics: noproject.info/it/video/rcSqZdeur3Xc2J4
Aatish's Exponential/Logistic Curve-Fitting Site: github.com/aatishb/covid/blob/master/curvefit.ipynb
Data Source: github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
Our World in Data Page on Coronavirus: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world? ourworldindata.org/covid-testing
Understanding logarithmic scales: www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.html
What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight: www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028
(Great explainer on log scales and growth curves explained in the context of COVID-19 in different countries)
This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.
Support MinutePhysics on Patreon! www.patreon.com/minutephysics
Link to Patreon Supporters: www.minutephysics.com/supporters/

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Kommentarer

  • Covid 19 is ending in Australia

    Kalan SaundersKalan Saunders6 timer siden
  • What a fantastic video! Thanks so much for your time!!

    Eben VisherEben Visher12 timer siden
  • Chinese data are fake

    王荺勝王荺勝17 timer siden
  • well, I'm from china and now an American university student, and I stay hometown now, wait for maybe fall semester back. we all don't believe the real case turns to absolute 0, but from February everyone from Wuhan or outside travels to another place will be stayed at home 14 days to confirm(no matter you have any symptom)if you get COVID. and from February one family only got 2day once going out chance for buying some food. the government may or must hide some cases but in china what CCP(you remind this word)say, most Chinese will follow and do even they don't agree with a lot... so all people in China don't have any outside action from February, the Wuhan get "city lockdown"(you can't leave your city absolutely anyway) I can't trust the sudden fall of the case but the increase or we actually be lower than many countries I think...south Korea did something likely, they lock their country. I love America and for china not to the government lot, I love our people...some doctors work nearly 20 days and sleep totally less than 20hour to save people...that's a challenge to everyone 希望全世界所有国家的人民早日摆脱这场灾难(best wishes for all people around the world get rid of this disaster ASAP )

    刘娅刘娅17 timer siden
  • Could you make another video with these sort of graphs, to show which countries are recovering well and which aren't? It's the best way I've seen so far.

    Alexander JacksonAlexander JacksonDag siden
  • China is LYING !!!!

    Eva LamEva LamDag siden
    • That's true, the CCP has lied again and again, ten million people have died here, come and save us plz ,XD

      江枫江枫Dag siden
  • Here is a powerful source of understanding. noproject.info/it/video/ydt4lrKXqaTKr6o and yes it is more help than the news or government in understanding

    nitchvideonitchvideo2 dager siden
  • Don't want to shit on your parade but China is most likely lying. Great video though

    John the GreekJohn the Greek2 dager siden
  • I was not expecting a cogent, clear, informative video, but that's what I got! Thanks!!

    Freeda PeepleFreeda Peeple2 dager siden
  • I keep coming back to get the link to the chart, hoping the US marker is gonna plummet

    Benjamin GencoBenjamin Genco2 dager siden
  • This is a media-manufactured plandemic to further destroy the middle class and create a monopolistic dystopia. More people die of smoking, heart disease and cancer than this virus but the elites control the media narrative and, consequently, are controlling the sheep. I am so pissed off

    Jewelry BagJewelry Bag2 dager siden
  • March 24: this video was filmed March 25: highest exponential growth point in US March 26: start of exponential growth decline in US March 27: this video premiered

    wojeffwojeff2 dager siden
  • They didn’t include Taiwan tho

    Eugenia SumEugenia Sum2 dager siden
    • I think emphasis was shown on countries with significant case totals. It's there and now in the main view too (good work Taiwan!)! aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Taiwan

      wojeffwojeff2 dager siden
  • Please provide a updated version; same message new graphs. The presentation of the animated "waves of data populating the Logarithm plane is excellent!. If made current, it could demonstrate the increasing hope many need.

    Bern MetroBern Metro2 dager siden
    • aatishb.com/covidtrends/

      wojeffwojeff2 dager siden
  • Nice

    Jorge CossaJorge Cossa2 dager siden
  • The one caveat and maybe most important is that confirmed cases is such an unreliable measure since countries have varying levels of testing and testing is inaccurate. I feel like a new number of deaths vs confirmed deaths graph would be a more realistic trend.

    Mario ZMario Z3 dager siden
    • That was addressed in the video. Counterpoint, you can't have deaths if you don't have cases (so grim!). They have done that for deaths here: aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths

      wojeffwojeff2 dager siden
  • <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="386">6:26</a> please pronounce the names correctly - T in Bhatia (spelt wrong in vid) is different from t in Aatish (correctly spelt in vid). GoogleTranslate says it right: translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=hi&tl=en&text=%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%A4%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%B6%20%E0%A4%AD%E0%A4%BE%E0%A4%9F%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%AF%E0%A4%BE

    Yash Pal GoyalYash Pal Goyal4 dager siden
    • otherwise a really nice video and thanks for bringing him in my notice. The site contains some really cool things that i am looking forward to experiment with some day.

      Yash Pal GoyalYash Pal Goyal4 dager siden
  • Statisticians: "Alright guys! It's our time to shine!"

    Arwah SapiArwah Sapi5 dager siden
  • WHAT ABOUT TAIWAN?

    Fez PaladinFez Paladin5 dager siden
  • Hey you haven't made new video yet Where are you?

    sk Farhansk Farhan6 dager siden
  • And post-viral effects.

    John HailstoneJohn Hailstone6 dager siden
  • Do a vid on if earth had 2 moons.....

    LIL JON'SLIL JON'S6 dager siden
  • >implying the CCP will give accurate information about anything

    IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴIɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ7 dager siden
  • Diseases are a mechanism of evolution.

    tom091178tom0911787 dager siden
  • 중국은 조작인거 아시죠?

    Tae-young KimTae-young Kim7 dager siden
  • America:vrroomm vrroommm hell yea im going fast af China:oi, im doing 2nd wave of covid 19 lets see how it goes

    North KoreaNorth Korea7 dager siden
    • Brazil: Hey Hey wait for me.

      Wendull 81Wendull 812 dager siden
  • I would rather know how many are sick and how sick the positives are. As long as you keep testing the number of cases will increase....but if its rare that positives are sick enough to require hospitalizations, that's what is important to me.

    52marli52marli8 dager siden
  • You're an idiot. Your pseudoscience just tries to connect popular topics to some random concept in physics for views. You're a hack.

    Dodger YasselDodger Yassel8 dager siden
  • Is this the guy who had a whole video about using cats to power Norway? Yeah it is.

    khoen Da bosskhoen Da boss9 dager siden
  • Total bulls**t by another person infected with Digital Narcissism peddling unicorn feces. Nobel laureate Pro. Michael Levitt studied Covid case growth rates starting with Wuhan and showed that the reported growth rates never achieved "exponential" slope, used 2nd derivative standard, and this mistaken assumption was why Neil Ferguson's initial mortality estimates were pure bolux. Covid case growth rates are about as exponential as the hits on this web-page.

    Jean PoutineJean Poutine9 dager siden
  • This is a great video. Perhaps even the best I've seen in the realm of Covid-19 coverage and understanding. I would love to see the timelapse graph updated for the end of May or beginning of June.

    Davin RiedstraDavin Riedstra9 dager siden
    • aatishb.com/covidtrends/

      Mister CompleMister Comple8 dager siden
  • To make the gaphs look better imagine that humans are the disease.

    Parakmi IParakmi I9 dager siden
  • can u please say which animation software did u usesd for ur video?

    pragadeesh svpragadeesh sv10 dager siden
  • COVID-19: *_exists_* Korea CDC: *_So you have chosen D E A T H_*

    DONG YEUN KIMDONG YEUN KIM10 dager siden
  • this graph reveals how absolutely shockingly insufficient the US response has been. oh.. my god..

    RinRin11 dager siden
    • your comment reveals how absolutely shockingly inept you are at understanding data

      Mister CompleMister Comple8 dager siden
  • China... Success?! HAH what a joke.

    jokinabadsbsjokinabadsbs11 dager siden
  • US isn't tough

    CircleDrawingCircleDrawing12 dager siden
  • 국뽕...

    김철수김철수12 dager siden
  • Nobody believes the numbers out of China...

    Jacob E OwensJacob E Owens13 dager siden
  • "don't plot against time" that's a life hack right there

    Simranjeet singh matharooSimranjeet singh matharoo13 dager siden
  • Chinas deaths are lies. There must be more deaths than the rate it apparantly is right now. The virus came from there!

    what is lifewhat is life14 dager siden
    • Yes, you are right, a billion people have died here

      江枫江枫Dag siden
  • Can’t believe Chinas data. They lied to us.

    Rachel’s rants I.Rachel’s rants I.14 dager siden
  • Imagine believing China’s reported numbers...

    AGRAGR14 dager siden
  • im s. korean myself but i have to disagree with this. i dont even trust south korean statistics of coronavirus. they actually gave up the test but are using it politically for the sake of their support. all the media are saying koreans are fucking best and never criticize or analyze about the numbers. we are fucked. literally. fucked.

    소고기커피소고기커피14 dager siden
  • Hey ! You forget Vietnam, a country with 95 millions people . 0 dead

    Paul MatencioPaul Matencio15 dager siden
  • Please do more covid data vids, or share links to more content like this. Thankyou.

    Naomi HardingNaomi Harding15 dager siden
  • What is amazing is that, even with under reported numbers, the graph still shows if growth is in exponential phase or not. Government would need to "exponentially" cheat to fake falling out of the curve...

    Ciron SoauvCiron Soauv16 dager siden
  • @minutephysics Doesn't the graph look similar because the logarithmic scale is too big to measure(comparative minor) deviations? It's like differentiating 2 stars in the sky, despite being very different in size they would look more or less similar, like a dot. Kindly enlighten.

    Bigdatamonk Inc.Bigdatamonk Inc.16 dager siden
  • Clearly something wrong with Japan figures, no?

    banbanrocksbanbanrocks16 dager siden
    • It could just be a culture thing. Japan is a lot more hands off country that actually listens to their government about facemasks and social distancing.

      Russ WilkieRuss Wilkie13 dager siden
  • Your not and wont be for a while. Dont be surprised if you have 200,000 or even 1,000,000 dead. America is finally no.1 at something.

    Ron ChasrRon Chasr16 dager siden
  • Be nice to see the graphs normalized by cases per 100,000 population but I expect that there would be even more overlap.

    Robert LockwoodRobert Lockwood17 dager siden
  • Are we wining or losing

    dead pooldead pool17 dager siden
  • noproject.info/it/video/ttpweMyXh4uxwJ4

    Matthew SnyderMatthew Snyder17 dager siden
  • After watching a video on the number of infections, and realizing that it was not what I wanted to know, this was very beneficial.

    XCMysterious HopeXCMysterious Hope17 dager siden
  • China's number of cases are a lie of course.

    Harb WinetinHarb Winetin17 dager siden
    • People like you are the cause of delayed responses in the West. Arrogant and ignorant. Mostly arrogant, I'd say.

      banbanrocksbanbanrocks16 dager siden
  • Can someone explain to me why the CCP is being defended in these comments?

    savemelofisavemelofi17 dager siden
    • @banbanrocks But the CCP has been covering up the truth.

      savemelofisavemelofi11 dager siden
    • It's about the truth, not CCP.

      banbanrocksbanbanrocks16 dager siden
  • Probably should throw out chinas numbers...

    Ben EBen E17 dager siden
  • Good job Trump, you made the West and the East turn against each other once again.

    DEMONSTRIA WOODEMONSTRIA WOO18 dager siden
    • Hope not. If the people of West and East would listen to Trump and really turn against each other, we as mankind deserve to be doomed

      banbanrocksbanbanrocks16 dager siden
  • I like how everyone is being biased to China while I sit here as a Chinese and say, “Okay, THIS IS ALL GONNA BE FINE.”

    DEMONSTRIA WOODEMONSTRIA WOO18 dager siden
    • The problem is China's oppressive, lying, single-party government. The people of China are not to blame for the actions (and non-actions) of the CCP.

      IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴIɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ5 dager siden
  • Hello friends today is my birthday. Kya aap mere ko ak subscribe gift me de sakte ho

    Prakash GoyalPrakash Goyal18 dager siden
  • This animation is also shows the overall trend of kills scored by my civilization in Stellaris over the course of the game. Exponential growth untill only my civilization remains. >:)

    supersonic2K8supersonic2K818 dager siden
  • Just don't do it.

    한강 물 온도 알리미Hangang Temprature Teller한강 물 온도 알리미Hangang Temprature Teller18 dager siden
  • My country *I AM SPEED* Also my country- *The USA*

    Eclipse ZEclipse Z18 dager siden
  • So basically, when you consider all the caveats, you just wasted your time making a nice visualization of a bunch of bullshit.

    aredesuyoaredesuyo18 dager siden
    • This is about Covid-19, not about your conception

      Russ WilkieRuss Wilkie13 dager siden
  • Not China though

    Harrison YooHarrison Yoo18 dager siden
  • Good stuff

    Our World VisualisedOur World Visualised18 dager siden
  • Is there a more up to date version of the data yet? I would love to see how the UK compares with the rest of the world.

    Tim AllenTim Allen18 dager siden
  • If you think China is being truthful about their death numbers, you are an ignoramus.

    DANGER DOGDANGER DOG18 dager siden
  • Why did you remove the country selection tool?!

    hawk0485hawk048519 dager siden
  • Why are you showing China ? There numbers are not to be trusted at all.

    Darren DentremontDarren Dentremont20 dager siden
  • COVID 19 ORIGINATED in USA. The virus was leaked from Fort Detrick, Maryland in July 2019. The bio-warfare lab was subsequently shutdown due to leakage. A substantial proportion of US flu cases were in fact covid19 cases. On 12 Mar 2020, CDC official had admitted that "some" flu cases in the US are COVID 19 cases. COVID 19 is spreading in US as early as August 2019, the gov just covers it up. The American athletes brought the virus to Wuhan when they participated in World Military Games. www.globalresearch.ca/covid-19-further-evidence-virus-originated-us/5706078 #Thanksforthevirus #UScovid19 #NewYorkVirus #AmericaVirus #FluNoTestNoVirus #NoWearMask

    mt89mt8920 dager siden
  • 18 thing you should know about COVID noproject.info/it/video/r5OKearcjqrNv4g

    THE THIRD EYETHE THIRD EYE20 dager siden
  • idk why youtube are so sour. the country of china is opening up the society, kids are going to school, factories are open, things are running back to normal. if the gov lies then there will be a hell show of dead body laying every, which is not the case. why don't some just admit that many countries like america and britain got y'all fucked up, world is not expect you make no mistake. looks like a joke when y'all yelling fake number with millions infected to some other countries where people back to normal life and don't give shit what you think

    j cj c21 dag siden
  • Where can we see an updated version?? This is extremely well done! EDIT: Found it! aatishb.com/covidtrends/ Link sent by a student of mine.

    Robert CruikshankRobert Cruikshank21 dag siden
    • It’s in the description, too.. and gets updated daily

      LikeyLikey19 dager siden
    • aatishb.com/covidtrends/ link was sent to me by a student!

      Robert CruikshankRobert Cruikshank20 dager siden
  • Ok so check this noproject.info/it/video/stZ-f62zhnLV0qI

    Awake FreedomAwake Freedom21 dag siden
  • Can you do an update on this chart that would be really cool.

    Sascha FischerSascha Fischer21 dag siden
  • If you dont upload video soon you will have more dangerous problems

    Arda EhiArda Ehi22 dager siden
  • shrtlink.ca/1810llixxxcoolsi1icone

    Brittany NewtonBrittany Newton22 dager siden
  • public.tableau.com/profile/navajonationcovid19#!/vizhome/NavajoNationCOVID-19NewCasesVSTotalCasesDailyNewPositiveCasesCumulativePositiveCases/Dashboard1 is this kind of similar?

    Dził Ba HadadolghááshDził Ba Hadadolgháásh23 dager siden
  • You will never beat this virus until you come up with a vaccine it plays games with the immune system.

    Darryl JohnsonDarryl Johnson23 dager siden